异质发电商竞争下电力市场减排锦标博弈——结构与行为

利用行为经济学理论研究了电力市场中异质发电商竞争下的减排锦标博弈问题，先后讨论了不同市场与奖金结构下均衡的边际获胜概率及其最优减排努力程度． 从实验经济学角度对理论模型进行了实验检验，在此基础上将模型拓展到考虑影响发电商减排决策的非金钱因素，如社会比较的减排锦标模型，并给出了模型的最优参数估计与均衡预测值． 通过比较分析发现，在3、4 人减排锦标赛中，针对不同发电主体构成，增加胜利者奖励数量既不能驱动强者提高也不会迫使弱者降低各自的最优减排量; 无论初始调度禀赋如何，只要检验实验信息完全公开，所有发电商均存在过度减排投资行为，且在双强者单弱者参与情形下，强势发电商的减排努力水平与获胜者数量正相关关系与标准理论预测相悖; 对参数的约束条件显著降低行为经济学模型拟合度，其中广义模型均衡预测最契合检验实验的基本特征，而特定嵌套模型验证理论预测的可行性．     

Regression spline bivariate probit models: A practical approach to testing for exogeneity

Bivariate probit models can deal with a problem usually known as endogeneity. This issue is likely to arise in observational studies when confounders are unobserved. We are concerned with testing the hypothesis of exogeneity (or absence of endogeneity) when using regression spline recursive and sample selection bivariate probit models. Likelihood ratio and gradient tests are discussed in this context and their empirical properties investigated and compared with those of the Lagrange multiplier and Wald tests through a Monte Carlo study. The tests are illustrated using two datasets in which the hypothesis of exogeneity needs to be tested.     

Testing exchangeability of copulas in arbitrary dimension

A test for exchangeability of copulas for arbitrary dimensions is proposed, generalising and extending a result by Genest et al. [(2012), ‘Tests of Symmetry for Bivariate Copulas’, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 64, 811–834]. Three test statistics together with some modifications are presented and their asymptotical behaviour is analysed. Empirical p-values are computed by using a bootstrap-procedure proposed by Rémillard and Scaillet [(2009), ‘Testing for Equality between Two Copulas’, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 100, 377–386] and suggested by Bücher and Dette [(2010), ‘A Note on Bootstrap Approximations for the Empirical Copula Process’, Statistics & Probability Letters, 80, 1925–1932], based on a multiplier central limit theorem by van der Vaart and Wellner [(1996), Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes, Springer Series in Statistics, New York: Springer]. Finally a simulation study compares various versions of the proposed tests.     

Invariant tests based on M-estimators,estimating functions,and the generalized method of moments

We study the invariance properties of various test criteria which have been proposed for hypothesis testing in the context of incompletely specified models, such as models which are formulated in terms of estimating functions (Godambe, 1960) or moment conditions and are estimated by generalized method of moments (GMM) procedures (Hansen, 1982), and models estimated by pseudo-likelihood (Gouriéroux, Monfort, and Trognon, 1984b,c) and M-estimation methods. The invariance properties considered include invariance to (possibly nonlinear) hypothesis reformulations and reparameterizations. The test statistics examined include Wald-type, LR-type, LM-type, score-type, and C(α)?type criteria. Extending the approach used in Dagenais and Dufour (1991), we show first that all these test statistics except the Wald-type ones are invariant to equivalent hypothesis reformulations (under usual regularity conditions), but all five of them are not generally invariant to model reparameterizations, including measurement unit changes in nonlinear models. In other words, testing two equivalent hypotheses in the context of equivalent models may lead to completely different inferences. For example, this may occur after an apparently innocuous rescaling of some model variables. Then, in view of avoiding such undesirable properties, we study restrictions that can be imposed on the objective functions used for pseudo-likelihood (or M-estimation) as well as the structure of the test criteria used with estimating functions and generalized method of moments (GMM) procedures to obtain invariant tests. In particular, we show that using linear exponential pseudo-likelihood functions allows one to obtain invariant score-type and C(α)?type test criteria, while in the context of estimating function (or GMM) procedures it is possible to modify a LR-type statistic proposed by Newey and West (1987) to obtain a test statistic that is invariant to general reparameterizations. The invariance associated with linear exponential pseudo-likelihood functions is interpreted as a strong argument for using such pseudo-likelihood functions in empirical work.     

城市轨道交通产业投资对当年投资乘数的影响研究——以湖南数据为例

不同的当年投资乘数对于经济增长的作用不同,因此,投资乘数的计算可以准确测量投资对经济增长的促进作用。通过计算湖南城市轨道交通产业投资对湖南当年投资乘数的影响,可以预测未来湖南的投资乘数及其经济增长。通过研究可以发现发展轨道交通产业不仅对湖南经济增长率有着现实贡献,而且能够通过投资乘数变化对总供给函数的影响,来延长发掘该产业对湖南经济增长潜在的未来的贡献。     

刑罚体系问题研究

刑罚的轻缓化是当今世界刑罚的整体发展趋势,但我国现行刑罚制度的重刑化倾向严重。重刑易破坏公众的公平正义观念;重刑会导致刑罚功能的贬值;重刑易导致刑罚外的其他预防犯罪的措施难以落实。因此,有必要改革我国现行刑罚体系:消减死刑;完善自由刑;扩大财产刑和资格刑等非监禁刑的适用范围;增设社区服务刑等,使其与刑罚轻缓化的世界发展趋势相一致。     

循环经济产业系统的分室模型与模拟

通过构建循环经济产业系统结构,建立了资源循环利用的分室模型及其动态方程系统;定义了测量资源循环利用效率的循环倍数及其计算公式.模拟结果显示资源循环利用不仅能够实现自然资源的数量积累,提高资源循环利用效率,还能够通过产业创新优化循环经济产业系统结构,降低对自然环境的废物排放.本文所研究的循环经济产业系统的分室模型方法还可以用来检测区域经济系统,国民经济系统或生态产业园区等资源循环利用效率和环境排放程度.     

A convex quadratic semi-definite programming approach to the partial additive constant problem in multidimensional scaling

Bénasséni [Partial additive constant, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 49 (1994), pp. 179–193] studied the partial additive constant problem in multidimensional scaling. This problem is quite challenging to solve, and Bénasséni proposed a numerical procedure for two special cases: the cross-set partial perturbation and the within-set partial perturbation. This paper casts the problem as a modern quadratic semi-definite programming (QSDP) problem, which is not only capable of dealing with general cases, but also enjoys a number of good properties. One of the good properties is that the proposed approach can find the minimal constant under very weak conditions. Another is that there exists a ready-to-use numerical package such as the QSDP solver in Toh [An inexact path-following algorithm for convex quadratic SDP, Math. Program. 112 (2008), pp. 221–254], allowing a great deal of flexibility in choosing the index set to which the partial constant should be added. Our numerical results show a significant improvement over that reported in Bénasséni (1994).     

An Agent‐Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk

Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent‐based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near‐miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high‐risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in‐depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level.